The U.S. economy continues to grow, despite suggestions over the past two years or so that the U.S. economy is heading into recession territory.
This situation may reflect the “new” economic environment that is coming out of the changing world of information technology.
Historically, information grows and spreads. The growth and spread of information are the driving force in human advancement. We are just at the point in human history when the growth and spread of information has accelerated to a new level, one that many think may even challenge human dominance.
And, this fact is not going to change. History has shown that this acceleration cannot be stopped.
So, this is leading us to new facts that we must absorb and implement.
First of all, in this “new” economic environment, the business cycle is not driving things.
Innovation is driving things.
“Time pacing” is now a prominent part of the business plans of most of the new organizations coming to the playing field.
“Time pacing” is where you bring your next generation of products to market…not based upon demand…but, based upon time.
If you determine that your “new” generation of products needs to hit the markets, say three years after the “last” generation of products hit the market, then three years is what is driving your company…not the business cycle.
But, this is YOUR decision.
How fast do you feel you need to bring your next generation to market?
Well, how fast are your competitors bringing their next generation to market?
In this environment, one cannot sit on one’s hands. Everything must be constantly on the move.
And, in the world of information technology, time pacing is an important component of not only how you address your marketplace, but how you sustain your position in the marketplace.
Furthermore, you can’t stop. Your competitors aren’t stopping. How can you stop?
Secondly, scale seems to be everything in the “new” market.
The growth and expansion of AI are based on scale and computer power.
These factors kept AI “in the closet” for many, many years.
Now, the industry has been able to meet these demands.
The scale reached is incredible!
Just read the brand-new book written by Ray Kurzweil titled “The Singularity is Nearer”. You will be amazed by the stories Mr. Kurzweil provides about what has been done in this area of the scale that can now be reached in terms of data collection.
The numbers are mind-blowing.
Add to this the increasing ability of computers to generate output, and you are seemingly in the midst of an advanced science fiction movie.
This is the new world.
One very important piece of evidence of this change?
Look at the need AI has for energy.
Take a look at the article by David Gelles, “A.I.’s Insatiable Appetite for Energy” in the New York Times.
Mr. Gelles writes,
“AI data centers have a big appetite for electricity. The so-called graphic processing units, or G.P.U.s, used to train large lange models and respond to ChatGPT queries, require more energy than your average microchip and give off more heat.”
The demand for more data centers is substantial, and more centers come “online” every week. The forecasts of future expansion are enormous as the industry works to keep up with this demand.
Mr. Gelles states that
“One peer-reviewed study suggested AI could make up 0.5 percent of worldwide electricity use by 2027, or roughly what Argentina uses in a year.”
And, this is why BIG companies are heading up this charge.
The leaders in this quest?
The tech giants…Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta. They have been leading the charge…for a decade or more…to meet their energy needs.
To stay in the lead, they must sustain their charge and maintain the energy support they need to continue “time pacing.”
If “time pacing” is the process, then the support of this effort must keep up.
And, this is the picture going forward.
The tech giants are going to do everything they can to keep up this process and, if anything, they will work to keep their supply of energy sources ahead of the time pacing needs.
Mr. Gelles: “…the tech giants are working to secure a lot more power to fuel the growth of AI.”
This is the future…and this future will continue on for a long, long time.
And, where is the cyclical behavior in all of this?
Well, it doesn’t exist.
The world we are in, seemingly, just goes…and goes…and goes.
And, if you put the other innovators into this picture, all bringing their “new” stuff to market regularly, you have a pretty sustainable economy.
The need for time pacing is obvious.
Investors must stay aware of this fact. In this world, investors cannot be constantly looking for a business cycle because the leading firms now consider that their efforts must be constantly in play.
If a firm cannot keep up…it is not going to exist.
So, the pressure is on. Management’s must show us how they are preparing for the future, how they are bringing in new information, and making use of that information to lead…or at least keep up…with the rest of the participants in the race.
This is the world of Artificial Intelligence.
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